Quantitative assessment and visualization of flight risk induced by coupled multi-factor under icing conditions

Aircraft icing has been proven to be one of the most serious threats to flight safety. During the analysis of flight risk under icing conditions, quantitative assessment and visualization of flight risk are quite essential as they provide safe manipulation strategies in intricate conditions. However, they are rarely studied. Since the icing flight accidents are the result of the coupling of multiple unfavorable factors, in present study, we have proposed a method to quantitatively assess flight risk induced by multi-factor coupling under icing conditions by Monte-Carlo simulation and multivariate extreme value theory. The results demonstrate that the flight risk probability increases with the rise of unfavorable factors. Besides, a flight risk visualization method named flight safety window has been presented to build the flight risk distribution cloud maps in different complex conditions. The cloud maps show that the icing would give rise to atrophy of the safety scope, and the consequence would be even more severe when coupled with other more unfavorable factors. The proposed methods in this study would be useful in flight risk analysis under icing conditions and can enhance the pilot's situational awareness in selecting correct strategies within the safety zone to avoid unsafe manipulation.     

基于变刚度变阻尼的柔性喷管动态模型

针对柔性接头动态迟滞曲线受控制系统控制位置精度和动态响应速度影响较大的问题,基于电液伺服机构和柔性接头变刚度变阻尼模型,构建了柔性喷管的电液伺服机构-变刚度变阻尼模型,将其和电液伺服机构-定刚度定阻尼模型进行了对比。分析了电液伺服机构主要参数、柔性接头工作参数等对电液伺服机构-柔性接头系统动态特性的影响。分析结果表明:电液伺服机构-变刚度变阻尼模型所构造的迟滞曲线可更准确地与实验结果相吻合,并符合迟滞曲线随频率变化的规律,反馈系数、放大器静态放大系数、电液伺服机构增益、滑阀流量增益等参数对系统动态特性的影响更为明显。该模型为固体火箭发动机电液伺服机构-柔性接头系统动态特性的调整提供理论依据。     

基于MapReduce的CME参数识别模型并行计算技术

日冕物质抛射（Coronal Mass Ejection，CME）参数识别模型是太阳风预报过程的重要组成部分.在空间环境预报业务中，为提高太阳风预报的准确率，需要提高CME参数识别的精度.模型以计算任务串行的方式运行，运算效率低导致模型运算时间长，不能满足这种需求.CME参数识别模型的物理运算过程相互不独立，其在单节点上的运行方式不能满足并行化要求.基于MapReduce的并行计算框架，改进了CME参数识别模型的计算流程，提出CDMR（CME detection under MapReduce）方法，实现了CME参数识别模型的并行计算，并对比分析CME参数识别模型在串行计算和MapReduce并行计算下的运行时间，提高了模型的识别精度和计算效率.      

Effect of curing condition on bonding quality of scarf-repaired composite laminates

Both single-face vacuum bag curing (SVC) and double-face vacuum bag curing (DVC) can be used in scarf repair of composite structures. But different curing conditions caused by the sealing state may affect the bonding quality of scarf-repaired structures. In this paper, the effect of curing condition on bonding quality of scarf-repaired laminates was experimentally investigated in terms of surface profiles, moisture absorption curves and section profiles. In order to further explore the moisture absorption mechanism, finite element model of the repaired laminates using DVC was established with moisture diffusion of both the adhesive and composite laminates considered. This model was verified by experimental results. Based on the model of DVC case, the model of SVC case was built by changing moisture absorption parameters of the adhesive. Results show that SVC reduces the bonding quality, mainly reflecting in more adhesive inner voids and patch-to-parent dislocation. And SVC increases moisture absorption rate and moisture equilibrium content of the adhesive, and its effect on the former is far greater than that on the latter.     

Establishment of atmospheric weighted mean temperature model in the polar regions

Due to the special geographical location and extreme climate environment, the polar regions (Antarctic and Arctic) have an important impact on global climate change. Atmospheric weighted mean temperature (Tm) is a crucial parameter in the retrieval of precipitable water vapor (PWV) from the zenith wet delay (ZWD) of ground-based Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signal propagation. In this paper, the correlation between weighted mean temperature and surface temperature (Ts) is studied firstly. It is shown that the correlation coefficients between Tm and Ts are 0.93 in the Antarctic and 0.94 in the Arctic. The linear regression Tm model and quadratic function Tm model of the Antarctic and the Arctic are established respectively using the radiosonde profiles of 12 stations in the Antarctic and 58 stations in the Arctic from 2008 to 2015. The accuracies of the linear regression Tm model, the quadratic function Tm model and GPT2w Tm model which is a state-of-the-art global Tm model are verified using the radiosonde profiles from 2016 to 2018 in the Antarctic and Arctic. Root Mean Square (RMS) errors of the linear regression Tm model, the quadratic function Tm model and GPT2w Tm model in the Antarctic are 3.07 K, 2.87 K and 4.32 K respectively, and those in the Arctic are 3.53 K, 3.38 K and 4.82 K, which indicates that the quadratic function Tm model has a higher accuracy compared to linear regression Tm model, and the accuracies of the two regional Tm models are better than that of GPT2w Tm model in the polar regions. In order to better evaluate the accuracy of Tm in the PWV retrieval, the PWV values of radiosondes are used for comparisons as the reference value. The RMS errors of PWV derived from the two Tm models are similar for 1.28 mm in the Antarctic and 1 mm in the Arctic respectively. In addition, the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of Tm are analyzed in the polar regions by spectral analysis of Tm data using fast Fourier transform. The results show that the Tm has obvious seasonality and annual periodicity in the polar regions, and the maximum difference between warm season and cold season is about 63 K. After comparing and analyzing the influences of latitude, longitude and elevation on the Tm in the polar regions, it is found that latitude and elevation have a greater influence on the Tm than the longitude. As the latitude and elevation increase, the Tm decreases, and vice versa in the polar regions.     

高超声速滑翔目标自适应跟踪方法

针对机动模式复杂多变的高超声速滑翔目标跟踪问题，提出了一种机动频率自适应跟踪方法。采用介于常速度和常加速度模型之间的Singer模型来表征目标气动力加速度的变化，从而建立跟踪系统的状态方程。根据地基雷达量测量获得系统的量测方程，鉴于距离和角度信息的量级相差较大将其由球形量测量转换为位置量测量。为了适应高超声速滑翔目标灵活多样的机动模式，基于正交性原理和无迹卡尔曼滤波算法实现了Singer模型中机动频率参数的自适应。利用滤波信息计算得到能够反映状态模型误差大小的调整因子，用于放大Singer模型中的机动频率，进而调整状态方程的过程噪声以降低模型误差。通过对2种典型机动轨迹的跟踪仿真，并与交互式多模型等方法进行比较，结果表明所提方法的跟踪精度高、计算量小，能够较好地适应阶跃机动和连续幅值变化的机动。     

Ionospheric electron density over Resolute Bay according to E-CHAIM model and RISR radar measurements

In this study, predictions of the E-CHAIM ionospheric model are compared with measurements by the incoherent scatter radars RISR at Resolute Bay, Canada, in the northern polar cap. Reasonable coverage was available for all seasons except winter for which no conclusions were drawn. It is shown that ratios of the model-to measured electron densities are close to unity in the central part of the F layer, around its peak. This is particularly evident for summer daytime. Distributions of the ratios are wider for other seasons indicating larger number of cases when the model underestimates or overestimates. E-CHAIM underestimates the electron density at ionospheric topside and bottomside by ～ 10–20 %. At the bottomside, the underestimations are strongest in summer and equinoctial nighttime. At the topside, the underestimations are strongest in autumn nighttime. Model overestimations are noticeable in the middle part of the F layer during dawn hours in autumn. Overall, the model tends to not predict highest-observed peak electron densities and the largest-observed heights of the peak.     

基于五阶自由曲面垂轴偏移的空间相机变焦方法

变焦光学系统在空间探测领域中有着重要的应用需求,提出了一种基于五阶自由曲面垂轴偏移的变焦方法,实现了具有两倍变焦能力的光学系统模型。分析了五阶自由曲面透镜的变焦原理和像差模型,采用两组五阶自由曲面透镜设计并搭建了伽利略望远系统,通过控制五阶自由曲面透镜的垂轴偏移量,来改变透镜的光焦度。仿真结果分析表明：该方法的变焦曲线具有单调性,且垂轴偏移量在8mm 以内。与传统变焦方法相比,该变焦方法的特点是结构紧凑、变焦连续、控制方法简单,避免了大幅轴向变焦运动,对于可见光、红外空间光学相机轻小型化具有重要的应用价值。     

基于RANS/LES混合方法的分离流动模拟

飞行器在大迎角、快速俯仰机动时,流场中含有大尺度、非定常的涡结构,传统雷诺平均Navier-Stokes （RANS）模型不能准确模拟流场结构,根据国际上相关研究的发展趋势,需要采用混合RANS/大涡模拟（LES）模型来对复杂分离流动进行准确模拟。本文对基于分区混合与湍流尺度混合的双重RANS/LES混合计算模型进行发展与应用。通过典型简化模型的静、动态湍流大分离流动,测试和验证所采用的脱体涡模拟（DES）类方法,重点研究改进的延迟DES （IDDES）模型在动态问题应用中的正确性和有效性,并对所采用的数值模拟方法和相应的计算软件的可靠性、鲁棒性以及精度进行了考核验证。典型算例包括超声速圆柱底部流动、跨声速方腔流动、NACA0015机翼深失速分离涡模拟等。计算表明：发展的IDDES类混合计算模型可有效解决对数层不匹配的问题;对于定态非定常分离流动,DES、DDES、IDDES等模型计算结果差别不大,随着流动的非定常特性增强,IDDES模型的优势逐渐显现;对于动态非定常分离流动,则需要采用IDDES类模型。